30-03-2020, 11:56 AM
Right, the voiding of a season that is more than 3/4's complete is, in my opinion, the wrong decision - lets hope it does not come to that (the decision on the league's below ours has yet to be ratified by the FA Council, so there is still hope!).
Having had 2 days not working I have had time to look at some data, findings as follows:
Most completed leagues tend towards the following outcomes; a definite result (Win-Loss) percentage of 70-75%, a non result (Draw) percentage of 25-30% (the data used for this is from English League Football history since the 1880's up to the nearly present day).
This season's NLN had the following:
360 matches played (78% of the total planned 462).
159 home wins (44%) - 111 away wins (31%) - 90 draws (25%) - so Win-Loss = 75%, Draw = 25% - we appeared to be fitting the historical trend.
Unfortunately, it is impossible to predict the outcomes of all the remaining matches, but we can look to the most common single match outcome for some help (variations due to one dataset being more upto date, but useful for a range), that of the 1-1 draw; 11.0 - 11.6% of all matches have ended as a 1-1 draw; the 0-0 comes in at 7.2 - 7.7%.
A 1-0 home win ranges from 9.8 - 10.5%, 0-1 away win 6.3 - 7.4%.
If the FA and Leagues used the most common single game result and awarded every remaining fixture the status of a draw, each team would collect 1 point per game remaining.
York & Kings Lynn end on 74 points each, York would win on head-to-head record; (York 3-0 KL) & (KL 1-0 York) - or they could play-off.
Bradford Personal Assistant bottom on 29, Blyth second from bottom on 32, Kettering & Curzon next on 43, we are level with Leamington on 45.
Any better ideas?
Having had 2 days not working I have had time to look at some data, findings as follows:
Most completed leagues tend towards the following outcomes; a definite result (Win-Loss) percentage of 70-75%, a non result (Draw) percentage of 25-30% (the data used for this is from English League Football history since the 1880's up to the nearly present day).
This season's NLN had the following:
360 matches played (78% of the total planned 462).
159 home wins (44%) - 111 away wins (31%) - 90 draws (25%) - so Win-Loss = 75%, Draw = 25% - we appeared to be fitting the historical trend.
Unfortunately, it is impossible to predict the outcomes of all the remaining matches, but we can look to the most common single match outcome for some help (variations due to one dataset being more upto date, but useful for a range), that of the 1-1 draw; 11.0 - 11.6% of all matches have ended as a 1-1 draw; the 0-0 comes in at 7.2 - 7.7%.
A 1-0 home win ranges from 9.8 - 10.5%, 0-1 away win 6.3 - 7.4%.
If the FA and Leagues used the most common single game result and awarded every remaining fixture the status of a draw, each team would collect 1 point per game remaining.
York & Kings Lynn end on 74 points each, York would win on head-to-head record; (York 3-0 KL) & (KL 1-0 York) - or they could play-off.
Bradford Personal Assistant bottom on 29, Blyth second from bottom on 32, Kettering & Curzon next on 43, we are level with Leamington on 45.
Any better ideas?